Abstract
Aim: The purpose of this article is to identify risks during firefighting operations, utilizing the basic principles of reliability theory, but also functional probability models, for all stages of the firefighting processes. With the aid of acquired data, develop a mathematical model to describe uncertainties associated with various phases of firefighting and define the influence of component parts, through projects and programmes for each operational element, on the overall outcome in the fight with a fire.
Methodology: The article utilised a complex approach to identify the probability of overcoming a fire within required timescales, by taking account of all tasks associated with the process. The probabilistic description of each component was based on the use of standard time for the completion of a given task. In order to determine each component of risk, the study utilised Weibull’s distribution, exponential and normal laws of distribution. During the selection of distribution laws use was made of statistical modelling methods to determine the confidence levels for each operational task.
Results: Study results facilitate identification of weak areas in the operational performance of teams engaged in firefighting. From an analysis of factors influencing the quality of performance, adverse performance can be eliminated and consequently the effectiveness of firefighting can be significantly improved. Illustratively, the project development of access road selection and use of optimal routes within the operational boundary of a response unit will allow for a reduction in travelling time to an incident location by 30-35%. The application of automated calculation systems, to determine resource needs in fighting fires and by taking account of predicted timescales for undisturbed burning, will significantly reduce the probability value of failure in extinguishing fires within appropriate/desired time scales.
Conclusions: The proposed method for determining the probability of combating fires enables, on the basis of statistical data dealing with lead time for extinguishing fires, the conduct of work analysis for firefighting teams and to diagnose their weaknesses. Analysis of results reveals that the main weakness in team performance is the time taken for the journey to an incident location. Calculations indicate that, in order to reduce the time taken to locate and extinguish the fire, and clear the site of the incident, it is necessary to have at disposal an optimal number of firefighting teams.
Keywords: fire, extinguishing a fire, probability of extinguishing a fire, mathematical model, Weibull exponential distribution, normal distribution, information technology
Type of article: original scientific article