Abstract

Aim: To develop a method, based on Pareto principles, for increasing resource management effectiveness with prediction and minimisation of losses arising from emergency situations, both industrial and natural within the project-based organisation structure of the civil protection system.

Methodology: Theoretical research of an effective management process, with the aid of Pareto distribution, was applied to project organisational structures through the Office of Civil Protection. Current project management tools such as: PMBOK, P2M, PRINCE2, ICB, etc. provided a basis for scientific research. During the research process various methods were applied such as: systems theory, systems analysis, statistical analysis, cognitive analysis theory, mathematical modelling, information technology and management.

Results: Presentation of theoretical and experimental data allowed for the calculation of losses during emergency situations. These were determined with the aid of Pareto distributions and statistical methods, with a focus on minimising and estimating losses more accurately. The developed technique allows for the control of singular as well as global losses, at all phases as well as levels of management within the project office, simultaneously ensuring the mitigation of losses and attainment of a high level of functional effectiveness of the civil protection system. The basis for the developed technique was a mathematical description of characteristic indicators and maximum as well as total losses for the Pareto distribution. This approach revealed credible data which will help to increase the effectiveness of performance in a unified system of civil protection. Results allow for better management decisions, improved predictions and minimisation of losses arising from environmental disasters.

Conclusions: Results from research allowed, on the basis of long term statistical data, to achieve a high degree of convergence. The developed technique, using Pareto distributions, demonstrated that its application to resource management in the civil protection system leads to minimisation of losses during emergency situations and optimisation of the project management process, simultaneously making it possible to anticipate resource losses at all stages. Furthermore, research was harnessed to address current and applied research challenges, which impact on the improvement of project and programme management; optimal allocation of losses and creation of the most favourable conditions for the organisational management of a unified system of civil protection under the auspices of The Office of Civil Protection. The proposed method describes characteristic values of total and maximum losses, which may be used to obtain most accurate and relevant data, which in turn make it possible to minimise errors during management decision making, and significantly enhance the research base for projects and programme management methods . Obtained results will afford an opportunity to consider the unified system of civil protection in Ukraine in context of a project organisation structure.

Keywords: method, maximum and total loss, Pareto, programmes, projects, crisis situations, project management oriented, Office, unified civil protection system

Type of article: original scientific article